The Brussels-based International Crisis Group Research Center published a report entitled "Averting a New War between Armenia and Azerbaijan". The report warns of the high probability of a new conflict and presents recommendations on what should be done to prevent it.

In mid-2022, the EU and the US suggested to Baku that it could overcome the impasse through direct negotiations with Stepanakert authorities. Azerbaijan has indicated that, despite reservations, it will consider this option, although, given the blockade, no progress has been made in that direction.

The authors of the report pay special attention to the EU observation mission to be deployed in Armenia and remind that the proposal to send OSCE observers was not approved by Baku.

The idea of a longer-term OSCE mission gained support, especially in the US and France. As the OSCE brings together all the major European actors, French officials told the Crisis Group that they see a bigger role for the OSCE as a way to avoid tensions between Western states and Moscow that the EU mission could cause.

The report notes that EU diplomats had started preliminary talks with Azerbaijani officials, but these were disrupted by the crisis over the blockade of the Lachin Corridor.

"We are expected to put pressure on Baku to resolve the Lachin Road crisis, but that will make it more difficult for us to soften Baku's position in the negotiations on the mission," an EU diplomat involved in the negotiations told the Crisis Group.

According to the report, while EU diplomats were pushing for regional leaders' approval of the proposed mission, EU officials were working to overcome reservations about it in Brussels. Some European officials have told the Crisis Group they believe the EU should focus its resources on the war in Ukraine and not elsewhere. Others questioned whether the EU should deploy observers to Armenia, a country that is Russia's military ally through the CSTO and should theoretically be responsible for its security. A diplomat told the crisis group: "If we send a mission only to the Armenian side without Baku's consent, it may create a wrong impression... Baku may consider it as the EU is against it."

Others were worried that the alienation of Azerbaijan, a major energy exporter, would affect their economic interests. At the end of 2022, Armenia contacted Baku's largest trading partners in the EU, namely Hungary, Italy, and Romania, to discuss an EU observer mission.

Experts of the International Crisis Group warned that although Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a serious confrontation over a number of issues, the September fighting along the border and in the territory of Armenia itself has increased the risk of an outbreak of hostilities here. The report notes that even if there is no full-scale war, new fighting will bring nothing but misery to the people of the region and further worsen the political climate in Eurasia, which is already bad enough because of Russia's actions in Ukraine. But with negotiations shaky and diplomacy complicated by the deepening crisis between Russia and the West, neighbors of the warring parties must invest extra effort and energy to manage the risk of renewed hostilities.

The announcement of a two-year EU mission on 23 January was a bold step and was very well received. Building a consensus among EU member states required some maneuvering in Brussels, given Armenia's formal alliance with Russia and concerns about alienating Azerbaijan at a time when its energy resources are in high demand across Europe. Still, the costs and risks seem manageable and worth taking. An EU mission appears to be the best chance to minimize the risk of a repeat or escalation of the September fighting.

Now Brussels and its partners must make the most of their own reduced mandate. The EU will need to gain Baku's agreement and permission to deploy observers on the Azerbaijani side of the border by all possible means. It should establish working arrangements with Russian border guards, following the example of other cases where EU observers and Russian personnel work closely together.

Read the full report here.